| We are currently experiencing a fair amount of volatility in the stock market fueled by some of the uncertainties
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| that still loom out there. There are concerns over interest rates, the deficit, oil prices, continued concerns over
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| the geopolitical situation with tensions in various parts of the world. Despite these various concerns, looking
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| back over the last three years, the economy has been almost picture perfect with a backdrop of low interest rates,
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| subdued inflation, strong consumer spending, a strong housing market, a strong job market and a steady growth
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| of corporate investments. Also significant is the fact that earnings growth has been impressive not only in the US
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| but worldwide. Productivity is remarkable and global economic conditions have proved quite resilient to higher
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| energy prices and the rising interest rate environment. We are in the second-longest U.S. economic expansion
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| since the Reagan era. |
| We have had three years of positive returns in the stock market however this growth has not kept up with the
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| stunning earnings growth experienced, particularly when examining the long term historical relationship
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| between earnings and stock prices. Furthermore, we have had an environment where fiscal and monetary
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| policies have been stimulative. U.S. corporate profits have increased 21.3% in the past year and now account
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| for the largest share of national income in 40 years according to the Commerce Department. Obviously the
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| looming concerns have played a role in holding the stock market back. One way to look at the situation is that
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| the stock market could play catch up with earnings over the balance of the decade. This is why for the most part
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| we are optimistic about the outlook for stocks. Disconnects between stock prices and earnings are typically short
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| lived anomalies and it would seem that stock prices still have a bit of catching up to do. After nearly two years
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| of rate increases, the end of Federal Reserve rate hikes may finally be in sight which might be the sort of catalyst
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| that investors are looking for. |
| No matter how good the outlook might be, we can always state with almost certainty that it won't be without its
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| ups and downs because that is the nature of the stock market. This is why we will continue to reiterate the
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| importance of staying invested for the long term. To make this point, we have pulled ten years of market data on
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| the S&P 500 and computed the daily returns. We have then placed them in decreasing order and looked at the
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| impact on performance of removing the best days one at a time. By taking out only the 16 best days, we end up
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| with a negative return for the ten year period. There are some caveats with this sort of analysis, but the
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| conclusion is obvious. Staying invested for the long term is critical. You can view the details of this research by
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| going to our website at
www.ifrahfinancial.com and clicking "Best Market Return Days - 10 Yrs". |