Quarterly Commentary - March 2006
By Patrick Ifrah
The U.S. Equity Market continued its advance with solid gains in the first quarter of 2006. Given the pace of
growth in developing areas of the world, industrial materials stocks led the way during the first quarter.  Looking
at the the indices, the tally for the year is as follows: 
 
                                        2006 YTD Market Index Performance 
                                        Dow Jones Industrial Average   3.66%
                                        S&P 500 Index                         4.06%
                                        NASDAQ Composite Index      6.10%
                                        Lehman Aggregate Bond         0.34%
 
We are currently experiencing a fair amount of volatility in the stock market fueled by some of the uncertainties
that still loom out there.  There are concerns over interest rates, the deficit, oil prices, continued concerns over
the geopolitical situation with tensions in various parts of the world. Despite these various concerns, looking
back over the last three years, the economy has been almost picture perfect with a backdrop of low interest rates,
subdued inflation, strong consumer spending, a strong housing market, a strong job market and a steady growth
of corporate investments.  Also significant is the fact that earnings growth has been impressive not only in the US
but worldwide. Productivity is remarkable and global economic conditions have proved quite resilient to higher
energy prices and the rising interest rate environment. We are in the second-longest U.S. economic expansion
since the Reagan era.
 
We have had three years of positive returns in the stock market however this growth has not kept up with the
stunning earnings growth experienced, particularly when examining the long term historical relationship
between earnings and stock prices.  Furthermore, we have had an environment where fiscal and monetary
policies have been stimulative.  U.S. corporate profits have increased 21.3% in the past year and now account
for the largest share of national income in 40 years according to the Commerce Department.  Obviously the
looming concerns have played a role in holding the stock market back.  One way to look at the situation is that
the stock market could play catch up with earnings over the balance of the decade. This is why for the most part
we are optimistic about the outlook for stocks. Disconnects between stock prices and earnings are typically short
lived anomalies and it would seem that stock prices still have a bit of catching up to do.  After nearly two years
of rate increases, the end of Federal Reserve rate hikes may finally be in sight which might be the sort of catalyst
that investors are looking for.
 
No matter how good the outlook might be, we can always state with almost certainty that it won't be without its
ups and downs because that is the nature of the stock market.  This is why we will continue to reiterate the
importance of staying invested for the long term. To make this point, we have pulled ten years of market data on
the S&P 500 and computed the daily returns. We have then placed them in decreasing order and looked at the
impact on performance of removing the best days one at a time. By taking out only the 16 best days, we end up
with a negative return for the  ten year period.  There are some caveats with this sort of analysis, but the
conclusion is obvious. Staying invested for the long term is critical. You can view the details of this research by
going to our website at www.ifrahfinancial.com and clicking  "Best Market Return Days - 10 Yrs".  
 
Thank you again for your continued trust and confidence.

Mr. Ifrah's comments are provided as a general market overview and should not be considered investment advice or predictive of any future market performance.