Quarterly Commentary - September 2006
By Patrick Ifrah
The U.S. Equity Market bounced back in the third quarter after the second
quarter decline to close at levels near the peak of May 2006, either slightly
above or below the peak depending on which index you focus on. The year to date
returns for the following indices are:
2006 YTD Market Index Performance
Dow Jones Industrial Average
8.97%
S&P 500 Index
8.53%
NASDAQ Composite Index
2.41%
Lehman Aggregate Bond
3.06%
Please keep in mind that the above numbers reflect performance since the
beginning of the year. Your quarterly reports reflect a later beginning date,
typically 2/28, 3/31 or 4/30. For comparison purposes the following are the
relevant numbers. Also keep in mind that beyond proper time frame, any
meaningful comparisons to indices need to take into consideration the makeup of
the portfolio with regard to types of securities (ie: equities,
domestic/foreign, and fixed income positions).
Since 2/28 Since 3/31 Since 4/30
Dow Jones Industrial Average 6.23%
5.13% 2.74%
S&P 500 Index
4.31% 3.16%
1.93%
NASDAQ Composite Index -1.01%
-3.48% -2.76%
Lehman Aggregate Bond
2.62% 3.51%
3.67%
The catalyst behind the rebound was a combination of continued solid earnings
growth, an improved outlook for interest rates and a pullback in oil and other
commodity prices. The drop in commodity prices helped reduce inflationary
concerns, which in turn reduce the likelihood of a hike in interest rates by the
Federal Reserve. Lower interest rates are very positive for stocks. The Federal
Reserve Board opted to hold its key lending rate at 5.25% on September 20th
marking the second consecutive pause.
The economic growth of the U.S. is expected to continue to slow down. One of the
concerns relate to the housing market softening and the potential impact on the
economy, which is fairly normal considering where we are in the economic cycle.
Some positive offsets are a strong job market and rising household income
continuing to contribute to consumer spending, as well as helping to alleviate
some of the affordability concerns. In addition, we can take into consideration
the fact that corporations are still flush with cash and should fill in the
spending gap of the consumer as the economy continues to grow, even at an
expected slower pace.
There are contrasting views among major economists about the future direction of
the economy and interest rates. We remain optimistic about the stock market
given that the economy is settling into a more sustainable and less inflationary
growth pattern and we are in the midst of attractive stock valuations.
After the minor correction experienced in May, investors were quick to realize
that the economic and earning fundamentals did not warrant a significant market
revaluation and the dip was therefore short lived. Investor's collective risk
assessments are continuously subject to change and will inflict the market with
short term volatility. This volatility is often unrelated to actual
fundamentals. It is an amalgam of many investors continuous assessments and
re-assessments of so many things. That is the nature of the stock market, and
this understanding is critical for long term success. The best course of action
remains to "stay the course". Thank you for the opportunity to serve you.