Quarterly Commentary - June 2007
By Patrick Ifrah
The U.S. Equity Market continued to rally from the previous quarter into April
and May in a fairly steady manner. In June however, the U.S. Equity Market
seemed to lose some steam and gave back some gains with volatility returning
back to the Market . The year to date returns for the following indices are as
follows:
2007 YTD Market Index Performance
Dow Jones Industrial Average 8.76%
S&P 500 Index
6.96%
NASDAQ Composite Index
7.78%
Lehman Aggregate Bond
0.59%
The stock market has held up quite well despite the rise in interest rates. Some
of the hesitation and slight pull back in June was driven by the upward movement
in rates. Signs of stability on the economic front however helped refrain the
market on the downside. The economic data reflected a mild re-acceleration in
growth from the mid-cycle slowdown we were experiencing, while inflation
pressures remained in check.
Some of the main concerns during the quarter were related to the slowdown in the
housing market and the sub prime market problems which have surfaced again in
light of the recent upward move in interest rates. Increased rates make homes
less affordable. High inventories of unsold new homes, a significant slowdown in
new home starts and declining existing home sales have caused home prices to
come under some pressure. A lowering of home values affects the consumer's
ability to borrow which in turn affects consumer spending. With reduced
spending, the economy slows down since spending represents about 70% of the
economic growth in the United States.
Although there are potential risks, there are still quite a few positives.
Despite the recent rate increases, rates remain at historically accommodative
levels. The U.S. economy remains healthy with a strong job market and a
resurging manufacturing sector. World growth has been accelerating and U.S.
companies are exporting at a record pace. The increased level of exports is such
that the trade deficit actually declined in April whereas an increase was
expected, particularly with the impact of higher prices on crude oil imports.
Corporate earnings for the first quarter where quite a bit higher than
forecasted by analysts and it is looking like that another round of earning
surprises might be in the works for the second quarter, which would imply that
current stock valuations still remain attractive relative to the fundamentals.
Although we are a bit more cautious at this juncture, particularly since this
bull market has been in effect for almost five years, we continue to be
optimistic overall and would view any pull back in the market as an opportunity.
From all of us at Ifrah Financial Services, we wish you a pleasant rest of the
summer and thank you for the opportunity to serve you.