Quarterly Commentary - September 2007
By Patrick Ifrah
The U.S. Equity Market took a sharp downturn in the final weeks of July as
investors reacted to various concerns. The market subsequently turned around in
mid August to recapture some of these losses. The year to date returns for the
following indexes are as follows:
2007 YTD Market Index Performance
Dow Jones Industrial Average 13.31%
S&P 500 Index
9.13%
NASDAQ Composite Index 11.85%
Lehman Aggregate Bond
3.85%
The US Stock market was characterized by a significant amount of volatility this
past quarter. The problems in the credit markets stemming initially from the
concerns over subprime mortgages rippled through the stock market, the economy
and beyond our borders. This has impacted the confidence in the financial
structure of the credit markets, ranging from lending practices, the
securitization process, the rating agencies, the accounting used and disclosure
related issues among other things.
Institutions owning some of these securities were holding time bombs as their
exposure to default risk was obviously more significant but not really known
because it could lay dormant in a portfolio. This affected the valuation of
these types of securities as it made it almost impossible to price accurately,
leading to a drying up of participation in those markets and price declines of
unusual proportions. With large hedge funds and other institutions owning a
significant amount of these mortgage backed securities on leverage, they were
faced with having to meet margin calls on their borrowing and shareholder
redemptions. They had to sell from some of their more liquid holdings such as
equities, thereby contributing to their quick declines as well.
Home mortgages representing the borrowing by homeowners are used as collateral
to create mortgage backed securities. In some cases the less desirable mortgage
backed securities are sliced into tranches and bundled and repackaged with other
types of instruments to be included in a new type of security such as
Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO's). The newly created pool then gets rated
more favorably by the rating agencies than it probably should through the magic
of financial wizardry, computerized alchemy and reduced transparency. Think of
it as slightly watered down ketchup for the same price. Hedge funds then buy
these up using borrowed money and it doesn't take but a sneeze for the house of
cards to eventually tumble and the trust in the system to evaporate. In all, a
gross miscalculation of risk where even the sophisticated models could not
incorporate or foresee that the basic human element of confidence can crush the
validity of an otherwise good model on paper. Simply put, beyond the obvious
excessively relaxed lending standards brought on by cheap money, this is about
the use of leverage on leverage and the creation of new securities to diversify
away risk by transferring it, making it less visible, and in the end realizing
that it cannot be diversified away for the whole. Risk remains there, just
harder to find as they seem to have misplaced it. Confidence will return for the
right price when they find it and have a chance to reprice it.
The stock market was quick to return to reality as buying opportunities
presented themselves in light of valuations that were and still are relatively
attractive as earnings continued to expand. One of the concerns with the fall
out of the credit issues is the unknown effect on consumer confidence and the
resulting impact on an already slowing economy. To fight those concerns the
Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by half a percent, which was more than
expected and should provide some relief. Although the Fed can't fix some of the
problems, they have gone to a more accommodative stance and future rate cuts are
probable. This along with the global effect and the weak dollar supports the
notion that the US Economy will stay in growth mode. The stock market has been
resilient and by historic measures, valuations are attractive. Short term is a
guessing game, but we remain positive about the outlook over the intermediate to
long term time frames.
On behalf of everyone at Ifrah Financial Services, thank you for your trust,
confidence and the opportunity to serve you. Should you have any questions,
concerns or comments, please always feel free to contact us.